Risk of Turkish incursion into Iraq remains in place, according to National Intelligence Estimate. Turkey will likely resort to a number of measures to protect its interests in Iraq, while there remains a risk of a unilateral Turkish military incursion into northern Iraq to fight the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a top U.S. intelligence report stated Thursday.

  The NIE predicted that Iraq's neighbors will "continue to focus on improving their leverage in Iraq."

  "Turkey probably would use a range of measures to protect what it perceives as its interests in Iraq," it stated. "The risk of cross-border operations against the People's Congress of Kurdistan terrorist group based in northern Iraq remains," stated the NIE, addressing the PKK by one of the terrorist group's other names.

  Although the U.S. says Turkey has every right to fight terrorism, it firmly opposes unilateral Turkish military action inside Iraq, which it fears would further destabilize the region. The PKK launches attacks in Turkey from its bases in neighboring northern Iraq.

  Kurdish reluctance

  The NIE stated Iraqi Kurds were unwilling to reach compromise on some critical matters such as the future status of the oil rich city and area of Kirkuk in the north, as well as sharing of oil revenue. The Kurds want to make Kirkuk, also home to Turkmen, Arabs and Christians, the capital of their region. Turkey strongly opposes this effort.

  "Kurdish leaders remain focused on protecting the autonomy of the Kurdish region and are reluctant to compromise on key issues," stated the NIE.

  The NIE accused Iran of seeking to further destabilize Iraq through its influence on some Shiite groups.

  "Over the next year Tehran, concerned about a Sunni re-emergence in Iraq and U.S. efforts to limit Iranian influence, will continue to provide funding, weaponry, and training to Iraqi Shia militants," it stated.

  "Iran has been intensifying aspects of its lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants... since at least the beginning of 2006. Explosively formed penetrator (roadside bomb) attacks have risen dramatically," it added.

  Government's future precarious

  The NIE report generally painted a bleak picture on Iraq's near future, citing some military success against insurgents and terrorists, but also a lack of political reconciliation among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, and ongoing sectarian hostility.

  "The [intelligence community] assesses that the Iraqi Government (of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki) will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition and other Sunni and Kurdish parties," it stated.

  The NIE opposed an early troop withdrawal and a change of role for U.S. forces, who this year have mainly been used for security operations in increased numbers.

  "Perceptions that the coalition is withdrawing probably will encourage factions anticipating a power vacuum to seek local security solutions that could intensify sectarian violence and intra-sectarian competition," it stated.

  "We assess that changing the mission of coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counter terrorist operations to prevent [al Qaeda] from establishing a safe haven would erode security gains achieved thus far," it added.